More than a second channel? Supply chain strategies in B2B spot markets

The emergence of B2B spot markets has greatly facilitated spot trading and impacted supply chain structures as well as the way commercial transactions take place between firms in many industries. While providing new opportunities, the B2B spot market also exposes participants to a price risk. This new business landscape raises some important questions on how the supplier and manufacturer should change their sales channel and procurement strategies and tailor their decisions to this changing environment. In this paper, we study the channel-choice, pricing and ordering/production decisions of the risk-averse supplier and manufacturer in a two-tier supply chain with a B2B spot market. Our analysis shows that, to benefit from the B2B spot market and control the risk exposure, the upstream supplier should develop an integrated channel-choice and pricing strategy. When the supplier adopts a dual-channel strategy, the equilibrium contract price decreases in the supplier’s risk attitude, but increases in the demand uncertainty. However, it first decreases and then increases in the manufacturer’s risk attitude and spot price volatility. We conclude that rather than simply being a second channel, the B2B spot market provides a strategic tool to supply chain members to achieve an advantageous position in their contract trading.     

Goal achieving probabilities of cone‐constrained mean‐variance portfolios

In this paper, we establish closed‐form formulas for key probabilistic properties of the cone‐constrained optimal mean‐variance strategy, in a continuous market model driven by a multidimensional Brownian motion and deterministic coefficients. In particular, we compute the probability to obtain to a point, during the investment horizon, where the accumulated wealth is large enough to be fully reinvested in the money market, and safely grow there to meet the investor's financial goal at terminal time. We conclude that the result of Li and Zhou [Ann. Appl. Prob., v.16, pp.1751–1763, (2006)] in the unconstrained case carries over when conic constraints are present: the former probability is lower bounded by 80% no matter the market coefficients, trading constraints, and investment goal. We also compute the expected terminal wealth given that the investor's goal is underachieved, for both the mean‐variance strategy and the aforementioned hybrid strategy where transfer to the money market occurs if it allows to safely achieve the goal. The former probabilities and expectations are also provided in the case where all risky assets held are liquidated if financial distress is encountered. These results provide investors with novel practical tools to support portfolio decision‐making and analysis. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

考虑投资者心理预期的投资性商品价格运行稳定性识别与反馈控制机制设计

以投资性商品的价格运行系统为研究对象,引入反映投资者心理预期的变量,对传统的蛛网模型加以改进,并据此构建非均衡市场环境下投资性商品价格运行开环系统模型,对非均衡市场环境下投资性商品市场价格运行的稳定性进行识别,在此基础上对反馈控制机制进行设计.以我国的住宅市场的价格运行系统为实证研究对象,结合历史数据对所构模型的有效性进行验证,并对未来可能出现情况进行预测.实证研究主要结论如下:第一,我国住宅市场投资者对预期收益的敏感程度以及供应商对商品前期价格的敏感程度均较高,价格运行能自发实现稳定的区域较小;第二,现有调控政策不变的情况下,我国住宅市场价格正向偏离稳定区域的程度将减小;第三,若政府从影响投资者心理预期的角度入手对我国住宅市场价格波动进行干预,希望我国住宅市场的价格运行能以最快的速度趋于稳态,则设计反馈控制机制时,应重视投资者对商品价格未来的心理预期受商品历史价格的影响程度远高于受市场供需的影响程度这一现象.     

基于多种用海功能的海域使用权拍卖机制研究

海域使用权拍卖是对海域资源进行市场化配置的重要方式.基于海域资源的立体性和层次性特征,提出了多种用海功能约束下的海域使用权拍卖机制,设计了综合效用函数,对海域使用权进行经济价值与生态补偿的综合评价,促进海域资源的多层次利用与开发.仿真结果表明:相比较于单一功能的海域使用权拍卖,多属性拍卖能够改善海域使用权拍卖效率,同时拍卖结果也提高了政府对海域使用权拍卖的满意度和最终效用,为我国海域使用权拍卖方式的创新提供了理论基础.     

不同市态下正态性转换时变VaR

VaR技术作为全球广为流行的金融风险管理技术,其测度的是极端情况下的风险头寸,但在传统假设下可能会极大地低估其值,这就会使得在实践中使用VaR值作为风险管理标准时面临更大的新的风险.考虑我国股市处于不同市场态势下对风险头寸的影响,就牛、熊市中分别估测VaR值.首先利用各种Delta-Gamma-Johnson转换函数对经验数据进行正态性调整.考虑通过转换机制调整后的经验数据仍然存在的异方差性特征,然后运用GARCH模型计算时变VaR值,以此来改善VaR的计算风险,探讨我国股票市场VaR技术的适用性和准确性.     

马尔可夫链及其在股市分析中的应用

本文运用马尔可夫链理论预测股票价格分析股市,提出了股价运行周期和投资收益的最大化理论,并建立其随机过程模型,使决策的长期效益趋于最优,通过实例检验,证明了此模型的可行性和实用性.     

宏观经济信息宣告的股市收益及波动性效应——基于改进的AR(1)-EGARCH(1,1)-M模型的实证检验

基于改进的AR(1)-EGARCH(1,1)-M模型,从收益率和波动性两个方面考察各类宏观信息宣告对股票市场价格行为的影响.结果表明,居民消费价格指数和商品零售价格指数对股票市场的收益有负向影响;国内生产总值、社会消费品零售总额、公开市场操作利率变动率和企业景气指数对股票市场的收益有正向影响;公开市场操作公告会导致股票市场条件收益率显著增加;其余各类宏观信息因素对股票市场收益的波动性并不存在显著影响.     

基于国际估值准则的A股定价实证分析

尽管金融学理论认为股票的价值是未来无限期预期现金流的一个贴现,但针对国际股市的实证结果显示,股票实际价格很大程度上取决于市场对其未来一两年内的盈利预期等中期基本面因素.近3年里,A股创造的世界罕见的大起大落,引起了社会各界对A股定价是否合理的广泛争论.为此,我们设计了一个相对估值模型,根据国际股市的定价规则来给A股定价.实证结果显示,A股已经从2007年的估值泡沫回落到2008年的合理估值水平.还可以经过进一步地扩展模型讨论单个股票的定价问题.最后,讨论了实证结果的引申含义和一些政策建议.     

不确定性条件下市场特征与市场信息的价值

通过建立一个博弈模型,研究在不确定性条件下,市场特征和市场信息对企业利润的影响.在一定条件下,预测越精确,信息越有价值;而在其他情况下则相反.产品替代程度越高,或市场预期需求越大,都将对企业利润产生积极影响.     

基于误差理论的区间主成分分析及其应用

针对区间数样本,传统的主成分分析需进行拓展。首先讨论了区间样本数据的两种主要来源,即观测误差和符号数据分析。然后将区间数看作一个由中点和半径构成的具有一定误差的数,从误差理论出发,研究基于误差传递公式的区间主成分分析方法,并获得以区间数为表达形式的主成分。最后,结合我国2005年第四季度股票市场的数据进行了实证分析。结果表明,面对海量数据,区间PCA较传统PCA更容易从总体上把握样本的属性。